AINTREE FESTIVAL - 10 YEAR TRENDS

A brief summary of key trends is detailed below for each race over the three day meeting - trends alone will not usually find winners but they may help you to draw up a shortlist and then use your own skill and judgement to find that elusive winner!. The figure after each race name/detail is the favourites win rate e.g. 5 wins in 10 years = 50%. The race order is set out as run in 2007 and apologies if this changes in 2008!

THURSDAY

3 Mile John Smiths Hurdle – Gr2 (25%); New race 2004 although all winners to date were 6yo (one win) or 7yo (three wins) and finished 1st/2nd/3rd (within last 14-40 days) on last outing being well backed at 11/2 or shorter.

3M 1F Betfair Bowl – Gr 2 (30%); 8/10 winners last ran at Cheltenham in the festival - none of them winning thus largely a ‘consolation’ race for Gold Cup contenders. Only two winners ran worse than 5th on last completed outing.

2M John Smiths Juvenile Hurdle 4yo – Gr1 (50%); A last run at Cheltenham is a common feature. Very few other common trends although last three winners were favourites and had finished either 1st/2nd LTO at Cheltenham. A top jockey booking in this race may also be a good pointer.

2M 6F John Smiths Foxhunter Chase (25%); One 33/1 shock winner (Cavalero in 1998) but rest had odds of 8/1 or shorter. A 1st/2nd place in either of last two starts appears a common theme apart from 2005. Preferred age group 9-11yrs albeit last years winner aged 12. A strong jockey booking is also generally a very good pointer for this race.

2M John Smiths Red Rum Chase - Gr3 (30%); 7-9 year olds have won last 10 races. A last completed run finishing 5th or better was seen in 9/10 winners. All off track at least 12 days since last race. P Webber has trained 3 winners in 1999, 2000 & 2004.

2M 4F John Smiths Mersey Nov Hurdle Gr2 (35%); All winners had run 1st/2nd/3rd in either of last two outings with 5&6 year olds having best record with 10/10 wins between them. All winners off track at least 16 days but none more than 54 days.

2M 4F Handicap Hurdle (20%); Irish trained winners have a good record in the race with four winners since 1998. Horses aged between 5-7 years are preferred. Last 5 winners were all priced at 10/1+ thus the race is not particularly kind to favourites.

FRIDAY

3M 1F John Smiths Mildmay Nov Chase – Gr2- (50%); All winners had finished 1st/2nd on either of last 2 outings with 9/10 finishing 4th or better on their last completed race. All also last raced within the last 58 days.

3M John Smiths Sefton Nov Hurdle – Gr1 - (35%); Only Chief Dan George in 2007 had finished worse than 4th in last outing and all had won at least two of last six races and last 5 winners were in great form winning at least 4 of last 6 races. All also last ran 12-41 days earlier.

2m 4f John Smiths Melling Chase – Gr 1 - (40%); Several dual winners seen but no triple winners - Monets Garden will be bidding for the double if he runs this year. Last ten winners were placed 4th or better in last completed race with only two having odds higher than 9/2. 5 of last 6 winners trained in Ireland with 6/10 Irish trained in last 10 years.

2M 6F John Smiths Topham H/Cap Chase (10%); 9/10 winners had finished 1st/2nd in at least one of their last three races. All last ran within 58 days. Preferred age group 8-10yo. Last 7 winners carried 10st 12lbs or less. Only two winners seen with SP’s below 10-1 thus best looking for some value in this 29-30 runner field.

2M John Smiths Top Nov Hurdle – Gr 2 - (25%); P Hobbs is leading trainer with 3 wins in 2000, 2001 & 2002. A 1st/2nd place in either of last two completed races appears essential. 5yo are the preferred age group with 6/10 wins.

3M 1F Betfair.Com H/cap Chase (23%); Jonjo O’Neill is leading trainer with 3 wins in 2000, 2002 & 2003. All winners were placed 6th or better in last completed race. 7-9yo. is best age group providing 8/10 winners.

2m 1f Mares NH Flat Race Listed (33%); New race in 2005. All winners had run twice or more winning at least one of their races. All were well supported with odd of 5/2 to 7/1.

SATURDAY

2M John Smiths H/cap Hurdle Listed (0%); All winners carried 10st 9lbs or less. 5&6yo are best age group with 8/10 wins. Three of last five winners trained in Ireland with 4/8 recent winners Irish trained.

2M John Smiths Maghull Nov Chase – Gr1- (25%); P Nicholls is top trainer with 4 wins in 1999, 2002, 2003 & 2007. A 1st/2nd place in either of last two completed runs is a common factor. Five 5yo winners seen in last 9 years. All winners last raced at Festival (except 2001 when cancelled) although this has not proved a good race for winners winning at following year’s Cheltenham Festival - so Twist Magic fans beware!

2M 4F Scottish & Newcastle Aintree Hurdle – Gr1- (15%); Irish runners have taken 5/10 races including four since2003. 6-8yo are the best age group with 8/10 wins. Almost always won by a horse that last ran at the Festival at Cheltenham with dual winner Al Eile bucking the trend in 2007 although followers of this horse should note that only Morley Street has won this race more than twice in the last 20 years.

3 Mile John Smiths H/cap Hurdle - (20%); 9/10 winners carried 11st or less. 8/10 winners finished 6th or better in last ‘completed’ race. Jonjo O’Neill is leading trainer with winners in 2002, 2006 & 2007.

4M 4F John Smiths Grand National Gr 3 (20%); Irish trained runners have taken 6 of last 9 races. No winner has carried more than 11st 1lb and that was a new weight carrying feat by Hedgehunter in 2005 being the highest weight carried for over 20 years. A last run 20-49 days earlier appears essential. In terms of age groups 9&10yo seem best having won 7/10 races since 1998. There is also a debate about whether winners need to have a good record over the fences at Aintree. Only one winner since 1989 had not completed in its previous outing and all but one of the other winners since 1988 had finished 5th or better on last prep race. Other stats to watch out for include: A win over 3m or further, winner of a race worth £18k+ and a rating of 136-148.

2M 4F John Smiths Nov H/cap Chase – Due to the fact that the race terms have been frequently changed over the last 10 years trends for this race are probably not reliable.

2M John Smiths Champion NH Flat Race Gr2 (27%); A 1st/2nd run in either of last two outings appears essential. Four of last six winners were ridden by conditional jockeys. Four of last 7 winners also had SP’s of 25/1 or greater so not the best ‘getting out stakes‘ race to close the festival. 5&6yo age group preferred with 8/9 wins between this age group.