CHELTENHAM FESTIVAL 2008 - 10 YEAR TRENDS

A brief summary of the key race trends is detailed below which hopefully will help readers enhance their short list of selections over the Festival All comments refer to last 10 years (9 years races in view of 2001 abandonment). After each race name/details the figure in brackets is the favourites strike rate in the race i.e. 30% = 3 winners in 10 years, 35% will be 4 winners but one was a joint favourite.

TUESDAY

2M SUPREME NOV HDLE (33%); Irish trained runners have won 6/9 races . 8/9 winners also won LTO (last time out) with all 9 finishing 3rd or better on last outing. All last ran 20-65 days earlier.

2M ARKLE TROPHY (11%); Alan King and Paul Nicholls are joint leading trainers in the race with two wins each although don’t ignore David Pipe’s runners as the yard had a good record in the race also under Martin’s name . A 1st/2nd place in last completed run (i.e. falls etc. excluded) as well as min 2 wins in current season was seen in 8/9 winners. Poor favourites race although longest SP seen was 11/1.

2M CHAMPION HURDLE (50%); Irish trained horses tend to dominate this event with winners in 7/9 races. That aside a common thread has been that 8/9 winners also won their last race with the other winner placed 2nd LTO. Preferred age group is 7-8yo with 7/9 wins. Last prep race generally 19-51 days earlier.

3M 1F H'CAP CHASE (0%); 8/9 winners carried 10st 11lbs or less. All winners aged between 7-10yrs. Apart from last year’s 50/1 surprise winner the remainder had all finished 6th or better on their last prep race.

THE CROSS COUNTRY HANDICAP STEEPLCHASE (NEW RACE IN 2005) (50%); All three winners were trained in Ireland with Enda Bolger training two of them. They had both also won on either of last two starts being well backed at 4/1 or shorter. Last prep race generally 29-37 days earlier.

(FRED WINTER) JUVENILE HANDICAP HURDLE FOR 4YO (NEW RACE IN 2005) (16%);. All three winners carried between 11st 2lbs and 11st 9lbs and last raced within 37 days. Other common trend is that they had a 1st/2nd place on either of last two starts.

WEDNESDAY

2M 5F NOV HDLE (33%); All had finished either 1st/2nd/3rd in last prep race within last 18-60 days. 6yo have best age group record with 5/9 wins. Generally few real shocks with longest SP seen 12/1 apart from last year’s 20/1 winner.

3M 1F ROYAL & SUN ALLIANCE CHASE (22%); A win/placed run in last prep race (within last 27-53 days) seems essential. 7yrs is best age group with 6/9 wins. Only one winner in last 10 yrs finished worse than 3rd in any of its completed races in current season.

2M QUEEN MOTHER CHAMPION CHASE (33%); All were at least placed on last completed run with 8/9 winners finishing 1st on their last completed run. All winners since 1984 aged 7-11yrs with many doubling up following year (if you fancy Voy Por Ustedes!). Apart from New Mill in 2006 all others had SP’s of 7/2 or shorter.

2M 5F CORAL CUP H'CAP HURDLE (11%); 6/9 winners carried 10st 10lbs or less. All finished 6th or better on last completed outing with four of last five winners following up on the back of a win LTO.

4M 1F PETER O’SULLEVAN CHASE (5%): Named after Sir Peter for the first time although I have assumed other race details are same as in the past when called the National Hunt Chase. J J O'Neill is leading trainer with 4 wins All but one had finished 1st/2nd in either of last two completed outings with a 4th place or better LTO seen in 8/9 winners. 7&8 year olds have taken 7/9 races between them. Often a race that throws up a surprise winner with four of last five winners having SP's of 25/1 or longer.

2M NH BUMPER (22%); Irish trained runners have won 7/9 races with WP Mullins picking up 3 of these. 5yo is the preferred age group with 7/9 wins with two winners aged 6yrs. Only 2 winners had not won their last race. Interestingly very few winners of this race seem to become top flight hurdlers or chasers.

THURSDAY

THE JEWSON NOVICES HANDICAP CHASE (NEW RACE IN 2005)(33%); All winners finished 1st/2nd in all of last 3 completed starts (with last prep race 30-40 days earlier) All also aged 7yrs and carried between 10st 4lbs and 10st 11lbs.

2M 5F RYANAIR CHASE (PREV CATHCART CUP) (38%); The status of the race increased to Gr2 in 2005 and is now Gr1 in 2008 thus past trends may be affected by these changes. A win/placed run on last completed race appears essential. Nicky Henderson is the leading trainers with 3 wins. All winners were well backed at odds of 9/1 or shorter.

3M WORLD HURDLE (PREV STAYERS HURDLE) (16%) The last eight winners finished 2nd or better in last prep race. Horses aged 6-8 yrs. have taken the last nine races. Whilst favourite’s record is poor last seven winners all had SP's of 8/1 or shorter with all also finishing 1st/2nd in all races in current season...

2M 5F RACING POST PLATE H'CAP CHASE (PREV MILDMAY OF FLETE) (11%): The Pipe yard is the leading stable with 3 wins although all were achieved during Martin’s time as trainer.. Only 2 winners managed to carry more than 10st 9lbs with highest winning weight at 11st 3lbs. All finished 6th or better LTO.

3M 1F 'KIM MUIR' H'CAP CHASE (AMAT) (22%);. All winners aged 7-10yrs. Although this race provides quite a few surprises most past winners were 1st/2nd on at least one of their last two completed races.

3M PERTEMPS FINAL (H'CAP HURDLE) (22%); Trip shortened from 3M 2F in 2007. 6yo & 9yo fared best in recent years winning 4 wins for each age group with the only other winner aged 8yrs. 8/9 winners carried 11st 2lbs or less. 3 Irish trained winners with top UK yard being JJ O'Neill with 2 wins. All rested between 31-66 days since last race. A trappy contest with two 50/1 shots winning in last 4 years and a 20/1 winner in 2002.

FRIDAY

2M1F TRIUMPH HDLE (4yo) (33%); Last 9 winners had won their prep race (albeit one disqualified!). All last ran 19-48 days earlier. Most past winners won at least 2 or 3 times in current season.

3M NOVICE HURDLE (NEW RACE IN 2005) (66%); All winners were 1st/2nd on last outing being well supported at 9/1 or shorter. JJ O’Neill/AP McCoy partnership has won last two races.

3M 2F GOLD CUP (44%); The favourite's record is gradually improving after a number of surprise winners in the late 90’s. A 3rd or better place in last completed run appears essential with last 7 winners finishing 1st/2nd in their last prep race. 7yo is best age group with 4 wins from the last 6, with no winner aged older than 10 or younger than 7. Longest period off track seen is 82 days with all rested at least 34 days before this ultimate seasonal target. H Knight (Best Mate) remains leading trainer with 3 wins. Last 6 winners all well backed at 15/2 or shorter.

3M 2F FOXHUNTERS CHASE (22%); A 4th place or better place on last completed outing was seen in 8/9 latest winners. 8/9 winners had last raced 12-35 days earlier. Winner’s ages range from 6yrs (Kingscliff) to 13yrs (dual winner Earthmover) although last three were all aged 9yrs. Plenty of outsiders win this event with five of last seven winners having odds between 14/1 and 20/1.

2M GRAND ANNUAL H'CAP CHASE (44%); A 5th place or better on last completed outing appears essential. Last 8 winners carried 10st 11lbs or less. 3 Irish trained winners in this event.

2M 4F MARES HURDLE (NEW RACE IN 2008): Named in honour of leading trainer David Nicholson.

2M 1F COUNTY HURDLE (33%); In 7/9 races a 3rd place or better in last prep race was seen. Last 7 winners all last ran 13-36 days earlier. An SP of 16-1 or shorter was seen in all races. 5yo have the best record with 5/9 wins

And so we reach the end of another festival – with Aintree/Punchestown proving one last hurrah before most horses are put away for the summer and planning for the 2009 festival starts!