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CHELTENHAM PADDY POWER MEETING
This meeting is seen by many as the start of the ‘serious’ jumps season hence is well worth putting under the microscope! The meeting has always thrown up a large batch of wins for Martin Pipe in the past – will 2007 see the trend continued by son David? The races are listed as run in 2006 – figures in brackets after the race name/details shows the favourites win rate in this event: FRIDAY 3M 1F H/cap Chase for Amateur Riders (23%); M Pipe was the leading trainer with 3 wins although son David has yet to train the winner of this race. Most winners had a fair run (on last completed race) finishing 6th or better. All carried 10st 11lbs or greater. Only one winner had odds longer than 10/1. 2 Mile Gr 2 ‘Sharp’ Novice Hurdle (30%); C Mann & P Hobbs have had two wins each in this event. 4&5yo have a similar record with 4/10 wins with 6yo winning the other races. All but one winner finished 4th or better on last completed run. Only two winners had SP’s above 10/1. Last three winners were all active over the summer jumps season running up sequence of 1st/2nd places. 2 Mile H/cap Chase (10%); P Nicholls has excellent record with 4 wins. 7yo is preferred age group with 5/10 wins. A 1st/2nd place in last two completed runs seen in last 10 winners. Again rare to see outsiders winning this race with only one winner’s SP longer than 8/1. 3M 7F Cross Country Chase (20%); Enda Bolger has had 4 wins in this specialist event with 6/10 winners trained in Ireland. Several dual/triple winners seen in past e.g. McGregor The Third, Lindens Lotto and Spot The Difference(3). 9/10 winners had a prep race 10-27 days earlier. Oldest winner so far aged 13 yrs. All but one winner had SP of 10/1 or shorter. 2M 5F H/cap Hurdle for Conditional Jockeys (16%); Run over this trip for last 9 years only. Expect large field and frequently a long priced winner – five of last six were all between 20-1 & 50-1. Race has seen 4 Irish trained winners from the last eight renewals. 3M 1F Nov Chase (50%); M Pipe had two wins in this event and son David one winner, with Irish trained runners also worth following with 3/10 wins. All but one winner finished 1st/2nd LTO – last four won their last race. SATURDAY 2M Gr 2 Juvenile Hurdle for 3yo only (40%); M Pipe had three wins in this heat. Apart from the unraced Don Fernando all others were 1st/2nd on last outing (6/10 won LTO) with most recent winners finishing 1st/2nd in all races in current season. It pays to follow the money with all SP’s being 8-1 or shorter. 2M 4F Nov Chase (40%); M Pipe again top trainer with 4 wins – N Henderson next best on 3 wins and P Nicholls 2 wins.. Again form horses to be followed with all being 4th or better on last completed run. Longest SP seen 13/2 albeit fields for this event can often be fairly small. 2M Nov H/Cap Hurdle (70%): A good strike rates for favourites considering this is a handicap race. All but one past winners in form finishing 4th or better LTO. M Pipe was leading trainer on 4 wins although in the 9 runnings there have also been 3 Irish trained winners, two from A Martin. 5yo is preferred age group with 5/9 wins. All winners 8/1 or shorter. 2M 4F Gr 3 Paddy Power H/cap Chase (50%); M Pipe had an incredible 8 wins in this event so son David’s entries should be treated with respect. Despite this fact last two went off at 12/1 and 16/1 so don’t assume the yard’s best backed will be the winner! 9/10 winners had a 1st/2nd place in at least one of last two outings and only one finished worse than 3rd on last completed outing. Highest winning weight 11st 7lbs. 3M 2F H/cap Hurdle (35%); M Pipe had 5 wins in this event from 1997+. Form horses must again be followed with all winners being 4th or better on last completed run and also winning at least one of last two races – last four winners had all won at least their last two races. Lower weighted horses fare best with those carrying 10st 10lbs or less taking 8/10 races. 3M 4F H/cap Chase (23%); M Pipe had 4 wins in this heat. Concentrate on fancied runners as 9/10 winners had SP’s of 9/1 or shorter. All but one finished 6th or better on last completed run. SUNDAY 2M Gr 2 ‘November’ Nov Chase (60%); P Nicholls and N Twiston-Davies both have trained 3 winners since 1997. 8/10 winners won LTO also with the other finishing 2nd/3rd in its previous race. All last ran some 8-52 days earlier. 2M 5F H/cap Hurdle (40%); M Pipe was again leading trainer on 3 wins but also look out for in form Irish raiders with 3 wins in last 6 years also. In form horses fare best in general with 8/10 winners finishing 1st/2nd on either of last two outings. 5&6yo have between them won 10/10 races with 5yo faring slightly better on 6 wins. Often attracts big field and apart from last year’s surprise 40/1 winner all others had SP’s of 12/1 or shorter. 3M Graduation Chase (n/a); First run in 2006. 2M (Gr 3) ‘Greatwood’ H/cap Hurdle (40%); M Pipe had 2 wins in this heat as did P Hobbs. Preferred age group is 5yo with 5/10 wins. All were 4th or better LTO and all had a 1st/2nd place on either of last two outings. 2M 5F Nov Hurdle (23%); I Williams and P Hobbs are the leading trainers on 2 wins. Apart from the 2004 winner who finished 4th LTO the rest finished 1st/2nd on last completed outing - 7/10 winning LTO. Whilst favourites fare moderately this is a race to follow the money again as all had SP’s of 13/2 or shorter. 2Mile NH Flat Race (33%); In its 9 runnings this race has seen 2 unraced winners (includes Best Mate in 1999) with rest having finished 1st/2nd on last two starts. Last 7 winners all well backed at 5/1 or shorter. Preferred age group is 4yo with 6/9 wins with other winners all aged 6yrs. Last years winner (Cork All Star) also went on to win the bumper at the March festival.   |
